论文标题
从孟买的死亡人数中推断Covid-19的流行参数
Inferring epidemic parameters for COVID-19 from fatality counts in Mumbai
论文作者
论文摘要
从3月31日至4月14日期间，使用孟买的每日死亡人数通过贝叶斯推断估算流行参数。观察到5.5天的两倍时间（中位数为95％CRI为4.6-6.9天）。在SEIR模型中，这给出了3.4的基本繁殖率R_0（中位数为95％CRI为2.4-4.8）。使用作为输入，感染率和感染与死亡之间的间隔，推断孟买的感染数量。已经发现，测试阳性数量与总感染的比率为0.13 \％（中位数），这意味着当前测试目前正在发现750例感染病例中有1例。校正了不同的测试速率后，该结果与最近通过美国血清学测试得出的比率兼容。根据对感染数量的估计，我们推断出2019年12月下旬至2020年2月初在孟买播种了第一个Covid-19病例。前提是自那时以来的双倍时间保持不变。我们评论一些公共卫生的影响，如果在大约一周内无法控制增长率。
Epidemic parameters are estimated through Bayesian inference using the daily fatality counts in Mumbai during the period from March 31 to April 14. A doubling time of 5.5 days (median with 95% CrI of 4.6-6.9 days) is observed. In the SEIR model this gives the basic reproduction rate R_0 of 3.4 (median with 95% CrI of 2.4-4.8). Using as input the infection fatality rate and the interval between infection and death, the number of infections in Mumbai is inferred. It is found that the ratio of the number of test positives to the total infections is 0.13\% (median), implying that tests are currently finding 1 out of 750 cases of infection. After correcting for different testing rates, this result is compatible with a measurement of the ratio made recently via serological testing in the USA. From the estimates of the number of infections we infer that the first COVID-19 cases were seeded in Mumbai between late December 2019 and early February 2020. provided the doubling times remained unchanged since then. We remark on some public health implications if the rate of growth cannot be controlled in about a week.
