论文标题
有效的检测和隔离可以控制流行病吗？
Can Efficient Detection and Isolation Control an Epidemic?
论文作者
论文摘要
世界卫生组织（WHO）非常强烈建议进行测试和隔离，以此作为控制持续的COVID-19大流行的策略。本文的目的是量化在不同复杂性的正式模型中检测和隔离的影响。这种模型的关键参数是基本的繁殖比率。我们表明，有效的检测和隔离策略会导致基本繁殖比率降低，甚至可能导致该比率低于一个比率。
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has very strongly recommended testing and isolation as a strategy for controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this paper is to quantify the effects of detection and isolation in formal models of epidemics of varying complexity. A key parameter of such models is the basic reproduction ratio. We show that an effective detection and isolation strategy leads to a reduction of the basic reproduction ratio and can even lead to this ratio becoming lower than one.
