论文标题
对COVID-19的隔间模型的还原分析:数据同化和预测英国
A reductive analysis of a compartmental model for COVID-19: data assimilation and forecasting for the United Kingdom
论文作者
论文摘要
我们介绍了一个确定性模型,将总人口分配到易感性,感染,隔离的情况下,并在暴露后追踪的人,被追回和死者。我们假设“疾病传播的可访问人群”是总人口的一小部分,例如在干预措施时。该假设以及人群的耦合非线性普通微分方程的结构,使我们只能将方程式分解为两个方程。这进一步降低了被感染总人群的物流类型的方程式。该方程可以在分析上解决,因此可以清楚地解释生长和抑制因素,从而在整个模型中的参数。 “可访问人口”假设的有效性和降低的逻辑模型的功效可以通过将英国数据拟合到累积感染和每日新的感染病例的方便性来证明。该模型也可以用于预测该疾病的进一步发展。为了找到与英国冠状病毒数据兼容的优化参数值,我们首先确定参与原始模型的各种过渡速率的相对重要性。使用此信息,我们表明,原始模型方程可与英国数据相吻合,以累积感染和每日新病例。该模型计算出的每日新病例的事实表现出一个转折点,这表明感染传播的开始缓慢。但是,由于超出转折点的放慢速度的速度很小,因此,如果7月下旬左右,累积的感染数量可能会饱和至$ 3.52 \ tims 10^5 $,前提是锁定条件继续占上风。
We introduce a deterministic model that partitions the total population into the susceptible, infected, quarantined, and those traced after exposure, the recovered and the deceased. We hypothesize 'accessible population for transmission of the disease' to be a small fraction of the total population, for instance when interventions are in force. This hypothesis, together with the structure of the set of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations for the populations, allows us to decouple the equations into just two equations. This further reduces to a logistic type of equation for the total infected population. The equation can be solved analytically and therefore allows for a clear interpretation of the growth and inhibiting factors in terms of the parameters in the full model. The validity of the 'accessible population' hypothesis and the efficacy of the reduced logistic model is demonstrated by the ease of fitting the United Kingdom data for the cumulative infected and daily new infected cases. The model can also be used to forecast further progression of the disease. In an effort to find optimized parameter values compatible with the United Kingdom coronavirus data, we first determine the relative importance of the various transition rates participating in the original model. Using this we show that the original model equations provide a very good fit with the United Kingdom data for the cumulative number of infections and the daily new cases. The fact that the model calculated daily new cases exhibits a turning point, suggests the beginning of a slow-down in the spread of infections. However, since the rate of slowing down beyond the turning point is small, the cumulative number of infections is likely to saturate to about $3.52 \times 10^5$ around late July, provided the lock-down conditions continue to prevail.