论文标题
使用感染源测量来评估未诊断的未诊断感染的人数
Evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected in an outbreak using source of infection measurements
论文作者
论文摘要
在爆发时期，更好地监测的基本要求是评估未诊断的感染者的数量。对这一部分的准确估计对于评估情况和制定保护措施至关重要。在大多数使用流行病模型的研究中，感染的总数近似于被诊断的个体的数量，或者依赖于模型参数和假设，这通常是有争议的。我们在这里研究了所有感染的被诊断感染的诊断性的比例，而被诊断为所有被诊断感染的污染物感染的部分。我们表明，这两个在指数模型中以及当前在流行病研究中使用的大多数模型中大致相同，而与模型参数无关。作为应用程序，我们计算了各个国家中SARS-COV-2病毒感染的有效数量的估计。
In times of outbreaks, an essential requirement for better monitoring is the evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected individuals. An accurate estimate of this fraction is crucial for the assessment of the situation and the establishment of protective measures. In most current studies using epidemics models, the total number of infected is either approximated by the number of diagnosed individuals or is dependent on the model parameters and assumptions, which are often debated. We here study the relationship between the fraction of diagnosed infected out of all infected, and the fraction of infected with known contaminator out of all diagnosed infected. We show that those two are approximately the same in exponential models and across most models currently used in the study of epidemics, independently of the model parameters. As an application, we compute an estimate of the effective number of infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus in various countries.
