论文标题
微付费的最佳组大小
Optimal Group Size in Microlending
论文作者
论文摘要
一家银行向一小群没有信用历史的人借出的小额贷款始于孟加拉国的格雷恩银行，并被广泛被视为穆罕默德·尤努斯（Muhammad Yunus）的创建，后者获得了诺贝尔和平奖，以表彰他的成功努力。从那时起，微型付费的建模就受到了相当多的学术关注。但是，尚未详细解决的问题之一是小组规模的问题。然而，使用实验和游戏理论方法仍引起了一些关注。取而代之的是，我们采用一种数学方法来解决最佳组大小的问题，目标是最大程度地减少组默认的可能性。为此，必须创建一个具有相互作用力的模型，并精确地说明模型的假设。我们表明，穆罕默德·尤努斯（Muhammad Yunus）的原始选择是五人的群体规模，在右下，我们相信，合理的假设是接近最佳的，甚至有时完全是最佳的，即最佳群体规模确实是五人。
Microlending, where a bank lends to a small group of people without credit histories, began with the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh, and is widely seen as the creation of Muhammad Yunus, who received the Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of his largely successful efforts. Since that time the modeling of microlending has received a fair amount of academic attention. One of the issues not yet addressed in full detail, however, is the issue of the size of the group. Some attention has nevertheless been paid using an experimental and game theory approach. We, instead, take a mathematical approach to the issue of an optimal group size, where the goal is to minimize the probability of default of the group. To do this, one has to create a model with interacting forces, and to make precise the hypotheses of the model. We show that the original choice of Muhammad Yunus, of a group size of five people, is, under the right, and, we believe, reasonable hypotheses, either close to optimal, or even at times exactly optimal, i.e., the optimal group size is indeed five people.
