论文标题
在实际游戏情况下的热手
The Hot Hand in Actual Game Situations
论文作者
论文摘要
成功的条纹总是使人们着迷，并且已经进行了大量研究以确定“热手”效果是否真实。尽管体育提供了一个适当的平台来研究这种现象，但大多数现有文献都在真空中检查了场景，结果可能在野外可能不适用。在本报告中，我们建立在现有文献的基础上，并开发一个适当的框架，以量化成功在自然环境中成功的扩展 - 超出机会的范围。考虑到实际的篮球比赛情况，我们的结果提供了有力的统计证据，表明在这种情况下存在热手。即使我们的结果基于运动环境，我们认为我们的研究为思考像实验室一样，受控环境之外的热手提供了途径。如果我们想使用类似的结果来增强我们的决策并更好地理解重复决策的短期和长期结果，这将是至关重要的。
Streaks of success have always fascinated people and a lot of research has been conducted to identify whether the "hot hand" effect is real. While sports have provided an appropriate platform for studying this phenomenon, the majority of existing literature examines scenarios in a vacuum with results that might or might not be applicable in the wild. In this report, we build on the existing literature and develop an appropriate framework to quantify the extend to which success can come in streaks -- beyond the stroke of chance -- in a natural environment. Considering actual basketball game situations, our results provide strong statistical evidence that the hot hand exists in this setting. Even though our results are based on a sports setting, we believe that our study provides a path towards thinking of the hot hand outside of laboratory-like, controlled environment. This is crucial if we want to use similar results to enhance our decision making and better understand short and long term outcomes of repeated decisions.
