论文标题

停止在NBA停止对方奔跑时的因果效应

The causal effect of a timeout at stopping an opposing run in the NBA

论文作者

Gibbs, Connor, Elmore, Ryan, Fosdick, Bailey

论文摘要

2017年夏天,国家篮球协会减少了总超时数量以及其他规则变化,以调节游戏的流程。随着这些规则的改变,教练有效地管理他们的超时而变得越来越重要。了解在各种游戏场景下超时的实用性,例如,在对方的球队跑步期间,最重要的是。当反对派参加比赛时,有两种思维流派:(1)致电超时并让您的团队休息和重组,或(2)保存超时,并希望您的团队在比赛中可以进行更正。本文使用鲁宾因果模型框架研究了这些原则的信任,以量化在对方团队跑步的情况下超时的因果效应。在这种情况下,我们经常被忽视,仔细考虑稳定的单位处理值假设(SUTVA),并使用Sutva激励我们对单位的定义。为了衡量超时的效果,我们基于分数差异引入了一种新颖的,可解释的结果,以描述评分动态的广泛变化。这种结果非常适合兴趣量经常波动的情况,这是许多体育分析应用中的共同点。我们从分析中得出结论,尽管卷土重来经常在跑步后发生,但在对方团队的跑步期间打电话暂停并进一步证明这种效果的幅度因特许经营而有所不同,这有点不利。

In the summer of 2017, the National Basketball Association reduced the number of total timeouts, along with other rule changes, to regulate the flow of the game. With these rule changes, it becomes increasingly important for coaches to effectively manage their timeouts. Understanding the utility of a timeout under various game scenarios, e.g., during an opposing team's run, is of the utmost importance. There are two schools of thought when the opposition is on a run: (1) call a timeout and allow your team to rest and regroup, or (2) save a timeout and hope your team can make corrections during play. This paper investigates the credence of these tenets using the Rubin causal model framework to quantify the causal effect of a timeout in the presence of an opposing team's run. Too often overlooked, we carefully consider the stable unit-treatment-value assumption (SUTVA) in this context and use SUTVA to motivate our definition of units. To measure the effect of a timeout, we introduce a novel, interpretable outcome based on the score difference to describe broad changes in the scoring dynamics. This outcome is well-suited for situations where the quantity of interest fluctuates frequently, a commonality in many sports analytics applications. We conclude from our analysis that while comebacks frequently occur after a run, it is slightly disadvantageous to call a timeout during a run by the opposing team and further demonstrate that the magnitude of this effect varies by franchise.

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