论文标题
生产网络和战争
Production Networks and War
论文作者
论文摘要
诸如战争之类的严重冲击如何改变经济？我们研究一个国家的生产网络如何受到毁灭性但本地冲突的影响。在2014年俄罗斯 - 乌克兰危机开始时，使用乌克兰铁路发货的独特交易级数据，我们发现了冲突对公司的几种新型间接影响。首先，我们记录了对企业间贸易的实质性传播影响 - 如果其中一个在冲突事件发生之前与这些地区进行了交易，则贸易也会下降。冲突的二级效应的大小是一级效应的五分之一。忽略这种传播将导致对冲突对贸易的总影响约为67％。其次，战争引起了影响企业绩效的生产网络结构的突然变化。具体而言，我们发现外源性变得更加核心的公司 - 在冲突实际上切断了乌克兰其他地区的某些地区 - 受到了收入的相对增强。最后，在生产网络模型中，我们分别估算了外源公司去除的影响以及随后的内源网络调整对企业收入分布的影响。对于一家中位公司，网络调整弥补了冲突发作后一年的80 \％的网络破坏。
How do severe shocks such as war alter the economy? We study how a country's production network is affected by a devastating but localized conflict. Using unique transaction-level data on Ukrainian railway shipments around the start of the 2014 Russia-Ukraine crisis, we uncover several novel indirect effects of conflict on firms. First, we document substantial propagation effects on interfirm trade--trade declines even between partners outside the conflict areas if one of them had traded with those areas before the conflict events. The magnitude of such second-degree effect of conflict is one-fifth of the first-degree effect. Ignoring this propagation would lead to an underestimate of the total impact of conflict on trade by about 67\%. Second, war induces sudden changes in the production-network structure that influence firm performance. Specifically, we find that firms that exogenously became more central--after the conflict practically cut off certain regions from the rest of Ukraine--received a relative boost to their revenues. Finally, in a production-network model, we separately estimate the effects of the exogenous firm removal and the subsequent endogenous network adjustment on firm revenue distribution. For a median firm, network adjustment compensates for 80\% of the network destruction a year after the conflict onset.
