论文标题
大流行风险管理：资源应急计划和分配
Pandemic risk management: resources contingency planning and allocation
论文作者
论文摘要
诸如SARS，H1N1，Ebola，Zika和Covid-19的大流行病的重复历史表明，大流行风险是不可避免的。在世界许多地方，已经观察到了医疗资源的特殊短缺。一些归因因素包括缺乏足够的库存以及缺乏协调的努力来将现有资源部署到最大需求的位置。本文从风险管理的角度研究了应急计划和资源分配，而不是普遍的供应链观点。关键的想法是，有限的关键资源的竞争不仅存在于不同的地理位置，而且存在于大流行的不同阶段。本文借鉴了金融和大流行资源计划和医疗保健系统分配中的风险汇总和资本分配之间的类比。主要贡献是引入新的策略，以平衡医疗供求的最佳库存和分配平衡时空竞赛。
Repeated history of pandemics, such as SARS, H1N1, Ebola, Zika, and COVID-19, has shown that pandemic risk is inevitable. Extraordinary shortages of medical resources have been observed in many parts of the world. Some attributing factors include the lack of sufficient stockpiles and the lack of coordinated efforts to deploy existing resources to the location of greatest needs. The paper investigates contingency planning and resources allocation from a risk management perspective, as opposed to the prevailing supply chain perspective. The key idea is that the competition of limited critical resources is not only present in different geographical locations but also at different stages of a pandemic. This paper draws on an analogy between risk aggregation and capital allocation in finance and pandemic resources planning and allocation for healthcare systems. The main contribution is to introduce new strategies for optimal stockpiling and allocation balancing spatio-temporal competitions of medical supply and demand.
