论文标题
复杂大流行的简单控制
Simple control for complex pandemics
论文作者
论文摘要
Covid-19-19始于两年前，但是学校，企业和其他组织仍在努力保持疾病暴发的风险较低，同时返回（接近）正常功能。过去几年的观察结果表明，可以通过缓解策略的适当平衡来实现此目标，这可能包括使用掩盖，疫苗接种，病毒测试和接触跟踪的某种组合。缓解措施的选择将根据每个组织的需求和可用资源而唯一。本文介绍了基于疾病扩散的分析模型来制定这些政策的实用指南，该模型捕获了每种干预措施的综合作用。通过在广泛的参数上进行模拟来测试所得的指导，并用于讨论疾病在大学校园中的传播。
The COVID-19 pandemic began over two years ago, yet schools, businesses, and other organizations are still struggling to keep the risk of disease outbreak low while returning to (near) normal functionality. Observations from these past years suggest that this goal can be achieved through the right balance of mitigation strategies, which may include some combination of mask use, vaccinations, viral testing, and contact tracing. The choice of mitigation measures will be uniquely based on the needs and available resources of each organization. This article presents practical guidance for creating these policies based on an analytical model of disease spread that captures the combined effects of each of these interventions. The resulting guidance is tested through simulation across a wide range of parameters and used to discuss the spread of disease on college campuses.
