论文标题
SIR模型中繁殖比的不确定性
Uncertainty on the Reproduction Ratio in the SIR Model
论文作者
论文摘要
本文的目的是了解在实践中观察到的估计复制比的极端变异性$ R_0 $。出于说明目的，我们考虑了易感感染的（SIR）模型的离散时间随机版本，并引入了$ R_0 $的不同近似最大似然（AML）估计量。我们仔细讨论了这些估计器的属性，并通过蒙特卡洛研究$ r_0 $的置信区间宽度来说明。
The aim of this paper is to understand the extreme variability on the estimated reproduction ratio $R_0$ observed in practice. For expository purpose we consider a discrete time stochastic version of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, and introduce different approximate maximum likelihood (AML) estimators of $R_0$. We carefully discuss the properties of these estimators and illustrate by a Monte-Carlo study the width of confidence intervals on $R_0$.
