论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

Effects of Urban Boundary Layer Turbulence on Firebrand Transport

论文作者

Santos, Iago Dal-Ri dos, Yaghoobian, Neda

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

This study investigates the role of topography-induced turbulence, generated by an idealized urban region, in the transport of firebrands and risk of spotting. Flight dispersion, deposition, and smoldering state of tens of thousands of individual mass and size-changing firebrands were investigated in the atmospheric boundary layer turbulence, which was obtained using Large-eddy simulations. Firebrands were assumed to be smoldering spherical particles of Stokes numbers ranging from 30 to 175. Results indicate that the presence of urban topography significantly affects the firebrand flight behavior, landing distribution, and risk of spotting. Compared to a case with flat topography, horizontal dispersions of the smallest size firebrands were significantly enhanced when urban topography was presented, while the largest firebrands landed closer to each other and closer to the release point. Consequently, a notably different and more compact spotting risk map was achieved. Within the urban boundary layer turbulence, firebrands had shorter flight and smoldering times in comparison with the flat case. As a result, firebrands landed with larger temperatures, which contributed to a higher risk of spotting in the presence of urban topography.

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