论文标题

在体育活动期间监视健康状况的双线更改点检测

Doubly-online changepoint detection for monitoring health status during sports activities

论文作者

Stival, Mattia, Bernardi, Mauro, Dellaportas, Petros

论文摘要

我们提供了一个在线框架,用于分析智能手表在运行活动中记录的数据。特别是,我们专注于确定由身体状况变化(例如身体不适,长时间去训练的时期,甚至是测量设备的故障)引起的一个或多个测量行为的变化。我们的框架将数据视为由多元时间序列的物理和生物识别数据表示的一系列运行活动。我们将经典变更点检测模型与未知数的组件与高斯状态空间模型相结合,以检测一系列活动之间的分布变化。该模型考虑了由于后续活动的顺序性质,每种活动中的自相关结构以及不同变量之间的同时依赖性,因此考虑了多种依赖源。我们提供在线期望最大化(EM)算法,涉及更改点预测概率的顺序蒙特卡洛(SMC)近似。作为我们模型假设的副产品,我们提出的方法处理多元时间序列的序列在双线框架中。 While classical changepoint models detect changes between subsequent activities, the state space framework coupled with the online EM algorithm provides the additional benefit of estimating the real-time probability that a current activity is a changepoint.

We provide an online framework for analyzing data recorded by smart watches during running activities. In particular, we focus on identifying variations in the behavior of one or more measurements caused by changes in physical condition, such as physical discomfort, periods of prolonged de-training, or even the malfunction of measuring devices. Our framework considers data as a sequence of running activities represented by multivariate time series of physical and biometric data. We combine classical changepoint detection models with an unknown number of components with Gaussian state space models to detect distributional changes between a sequence of activities. The model considers multiple sources of dependence due to the sequential nature of subsequent activities, the autocorrelation structure within each activity, and the contemporaneous dependence between different variables. We provide an online Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm involving a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of changepoint predicted probabilities. As a byproduct of our model assumptions, our proposed approach processes sequences of multivariate time series in a doubly-online framework. While classical changepoint models detect changes between subsequent activities, the state space framework coupled with the online EM algorithm provides the additional benefit of estimating the real-time probability that a current activity is a changepoint.

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