论文标题
复制率可以告诉我们出版偏见吗？
Can the Replication Rate Tell Us About Publication Bias?
论文作者
论文摘要
广泛复制失败的主要解释是出版偏见。我在一个简单的选择性出版物模型中显示，与共同的看法相反，复制率不受抑制在出版过程中微不足道的结果的影响。我进一步表明，由于常见的电源计算问题，预期的复制率低于预期功率。我从经验上校准选择性出版物的模型，并发现仅功率问题就可以解释实验经济学中复制率和预期能力之间的整体差距。在心理学中，这些问题解释了三分之二的差距。
A leading explanation for widespread replication failures is publication bias. I show in a simple model of selective publication that, contrary to common perceptions, the replication rate is unaffected by the suppression of insignificant results in the publication process. I show further that the expected replication rate falls below intended power owing to issues with common power calculations. I empirically calibrate a model of selective publication and find that power issues alone can explain the entirety of the gap between the replication rate and intended power in experimental economics. In psychology, these issues explain two-thirds of the gap.
