论文标题
在网络上建模流行病的张量产品方法
Tensor product approach to modelling epidemics on networks
论文作者
论文摘要
为了改善流行病的数学模型,必须超越传统的均匀混合人群的假设,并涉及在接触网络和运输链接网络上更精确的信息,通过这些信息和运输联系,通过这些信息,这种传播的过程会传播。通常,网络的状态数量随其大小而成倍增长,主方程描述遭受了维度的诅咒。实践中使用的几乎所有方法都是随机模拟算法(SSA)的版本,该算法以其缓慢的收敛而闻名。在本文中,我们使用最近提出的张量产品算法在一般网络上为SIR模型的化学主方程求解了化学主方程。在数值实验中,我们显示张量产品算法的收敛速度比SSA快得多,并且提供了更准确的结果,这对于发现罕见事件的概率,例如对于被感染的人数超过(高)阈值。
To improve mathematical models of epidemics it is essential to move beyond the traditional assumption of homogeneous well--mixed population and involve more precise information on the network of contacts and transport links by which a stochastic process of the epidemics spreads. In general, the number of states of the network grows exponentially with its size, and a master equation description suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Almost all methods widely used in practice are versions of the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA), which is notoriously known for its slow convergence. In this paper we numerically solve the chemical master equation for an SIR model on a general network using recently proposed tensor product algorithms. In numerical experiments we show that tensor product algorithms converge much faster than SSA and deliver more accurate results, which becomes particularly important for uncovering the probabilities of rare events, e.g. for number of infected people to exceed a (high) threshold.