论文标题

使用深度学习和整体技术预测共同基金的绩效

Predicting Mutual Funds' Performance using Deep Learning and Ensemble Techniques

论文作者

Chu, Nghia, Dao, Binh, Pham, Nga, Nguyen, Huy, Tran, Hien

论文摘要

预测基金绩效对投资者和基金经理都是有益的,但这是一项艰巨的任务。在本文中,我们测试了深度学习模型是否比传统统计技术更准确地预测基金绩效。基金绩效通常通过Sharpe比率进行评估,该比例代表了经过风险调整的绩效,以确保基金之间有意义的可比性。我们根据每月回报时间序列数据计算了年度夏普比率,用于在美国上市的大型股票上投资600多个开放式共同基金。我们发现,经过现代贝叶斯优化训练的较长的短期记忆(LSTM)和封闭式复发单元(GRUS)深度学习方法比传统统计量相比,预测基金的Sharpe比率具有更高的准确性。结合了LSTM和GRU的预测的合奏方法,可以实现所有模型的最佳性能。有证据表明,深度学习和结合能提供有希望的解决方案,以应对基金绩效预测的挑战。

Predicting fund performance is beneficial to both investors and fund managers, and yet is a challenging task. In this paper, we have tested whether deep learning models can predict fund performance more accurately than traditional statistical techniques. Fund performance is typically evaluated by the Sharpe ratio, which represents the risk-adjusted performance to ensure meaningful comparability across funds. We calculated the annualised Sharpe ratios based on the monthly returns time series data for more than 600 open-end mutual funds investing in listed large-cap equities in the United States. We find that long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent units (GRUs) deep learning methods, both trained with modern Bayesian optimization, provide higher accuracy in forecasting funds' Sharpe ratios than traditional statistical ones. An ensemble method, which combines forecasts from LSTM and GRUs, achieves the best performance of all models. There is evidence to say that deep learning and ensembling offer promising solutions in addressing the challenge of fund performance forecasting.

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