论文标题

在不确定环境中的决策,决策,决策

Decisions, decisions, decisions in an uncertain environment

论文作者

Cressie, Noel

论文摘要

决策者讨厌不确定性,而且确实如此,它越越越好。但是,认识到不确定性是方程式的一部分,尤其是决定环境政策,这是做出明智决定的先决条件。即使没有做出决定是有后果的决定,而将不确定性作为未能采取行动的原因是一个糟糕的借口。统计科学是不确定性的科学,它在决策过程中应该发挥关键作用。该意见文章的重点是从数据开始的知识金字塔的峰会,从数据到信息,从信息到知识以及从知识到决策的步骤上升。在过去的100年中,在金字塔上升的巨大进步已经取得了巨大的进步,偏离了不同的路线。通常,一路上有健康的不确定性量化供应,但是,在急于做出决定的地方,通常会留下不确定性。我认为,统计科学在将经典决策理论发展成一个相关和实用的决策领域中需要更加积极地积极主动。本文遵循几个线程,基于损失功能和贝叶斯不确定性的决策理论基础。

Decision-makers abhor uncertainty, and it is certainly true that the less there is of it the better. However, recognizing that uncertainty is part of the equation, particularly for deciding on environmental policy, is a prerequisite for making wise decisions. Even making no decision is a decision that has consequences, and using the presence of uncertainty as the reason for failing to act is a poor excuse. Statistical science is the science of uncertainty, and it should play a critical role in the decision-making process. This opinion piece focuses on the summit of the knowledge pyramid that starts from data and rises in steps from data to information, from information to knowledge, and finally from knowledge to decisions. Enormous advances have been made in the last 100 years ascending the pyramid, with deviations that have followed different routes. There has generally been a healthy supply of uncertainty quantification along the way but, in a rush to the top, where the decisions are made, uncertainty is often left behind. In my opinion, statistical science needs to be much more pro-active in evolving classical decision theory into a relevant and practical area of decision applications. This article follows several threads, building on the decision-theoretic foundations of loss functions and Bayesian uncertainty.

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