论文标题
关于具有不确定社会特征的动力学流行模型的最佳控制
On the optimal control of kinetic epidemic models with uncertain social features
论文作者
论文摘要
人们认识到，就接触分布而言，社会异质性对传染病的传播有很大影响。然而，很少有关于社会接触组组成的数据，其统计描述不具有通用模式，并且可能在空间和时间上变化。因此，必须设计坚固的控制策略，模仿非药物干预措施的影响，以有效地限制受感染病例的数量。在这项工作中，从最近引入的流行病学动力学动力学模型开始，该模型考虑了个人社会接触的影响，我们考虑了不确定的接触形成动力学，导致接触的细长尾部以及脂肪尾部分布。因此，我们分析了代理系统最佳稳健控制策略的影响。多亏了动力学理论的经典方法，我们将不确定性量化方法与引入的数学模型相结合，以评估社会局限性的影响。最后，使用所提出的建模方法并从可用数据开始，我们显示了提出的选择性措施抑制不确定性以及流行趋势的有效性。
It is recognized that social heterogeneities in terms of the contact distribution have a strong influence on the spread of infectious diseases. Nevertheless, few data are available on the group composition of social contacts, and their statistical description does not possess universal patterns and may vary spatially and temporally. It is therefore essential to design robust control strategies, mimicking the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions, to limit efficiently the number of infected cases. In this work, starting from a recently introduced kinetic model for epidemiological dynamics that takes into account the impact of social contacts of individuals, we consider an uncertain contact formation dynamics leading to slim-tailed as well as fat-tailed distributions of contacts. Hence, we analyse the effects of an optimally robust control strategy of the system of agents. Thanks to classical methods of kinetic theory, we couple uncertainty quantification methods with the introduced mathematical model to assess the effects of social limitations. Finally, using the proposed modelling approach and starting from available data, we show the effectiveness of the proposed selective measures to dampen uncertainties together with the epidemic trends.
