论文标题
可能性审判程序
A likelihoodist trial procedure
论文作者
论文摘要
一种简单而常见的医学研究类型涉及将一种治疗与另一种治疗进行比较。合乎逻辑的目的应该是确定哪种治疗方法是优越的，并且证据的强度支持了这一结论，这项任务尤其不适合进行，这项任务尤其不适合。本文将基于可能性比率的可能性证据范式描述并评估了一种新型的顺序推论程序，作为其显着统计量。模拟了系统审查的Cochrane数据库中所见的治疗效果的分布的现实性能。误导性的证据率为5％，大多数情况下这证据只是微弱的误导性。早期停止经常发生，并且仅在0.4％的病例中与误导性证据有关。
A simple and common type of medical research involves the comparison of one treatment against another. The logical aim should be both to establish which treatment is superior and the strength of evidence supporting this conclusion, a task for which null hypothesis significance testing is particularly ill-suited. This paper describes and evaluates a novel sequential inferential procedure based on the likelihood evidential paradigm with the likelihood ratio as its salient statistic. The real-world performance of the procedure as applied to the distribution of treatment effects seen in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews is simulated. The misleading evidence rate was 5% and mostly this evidence was only weakly misleading. Early stopping occurred frequently and was associated with misleading evidence in only 0.4% of cases.
