论文标题
GDP为什么在G前移动？一切都在测量中
Why Does GDP Move Before G? It's all in the Measurement
论文作者
论文摘要
我们发现，国防新闻冲击对GDP的早期影响主要是由于业务清单的增加，因为承包商加大了新的国防合同的产量。这些合同不会影响政府支出（G），直到在交货中付款后，该合同以后发生了2-3个季度。关于国防采购义务的新数据表明，合同奖励Granger原因对G的冲击，但没有国防新闻冲击。这意味着相对于G的早期GDP响应在很大程度上是由国防合同的延迟核算驱动的，而对G的Varsight识别冲击则错过了对库存的影响，从而导致乘数估计较低。
We find that the early impact of defense news shocks on GDP is mainly due to a rise in business inventories, as contractors ramp up production for new defense contracts. These contracts do not affect government spending (G) until payment-on-delivery, which occurs 2-3 quarters later. Novel data on defense procurement obligations reveals that contract awards Granger-cause VAR-identified shocks to G, but not defense news shocks. This implies that the early GDP response relative to G is largely driven by the delayed accounting of defense contracts, while VAR-identified shocks to G miss the impact on inventories, resulting in lower multiplier estimates.
